Legacies are big and slow – like a manatee!
Here are my notes from an excellent session presented recently by Doug Clow of Legacy Foresight on “How to track and forecast your legacy income” at the Fundraising Everywhere #LegacyFundraising virtual conference 2024. Sessions available to watch on the links above. You should be able to see the images more clearly by clicking on them. This is just a bit of flavour from one of many sessions – sign up as a Fundraising Everywhere member to see much more.
- We need to track legacy income: for finance and resourcing, and for feedback so you can get better
- How? My extended metaphor is the cantilever
- Forecasting is a cantilever – extending out horizontally, but solid support from one end (methodology holding the weight of expectations we’re putting on the forecasting).
- Basic principles: legacies are big and slow, like a manatee! 29% of voluntary income for charities – really significant source of income, average 6.5 years between last will made and death, so a long time lag between persuading to give to you and them dying and then a significant delay before we see the income
- High value bequests skew everything! 59% of income from 9% of bequests
- Need to understand the difference between cash income and recognised income (can’t spend expected money until you’ve got it!)
- Most of this year’s income will be from legacies you already know about
- Think about means versus medians (ie think about how outliers skew things)
- Easy to estimate by value, but harder to estimate by timing
- Predict cash using estimates
- Good administration and engagement can bring cash forward
- Predicting new notifications is harder – how to improve the number in the short term is difficult
- Can increase number of people leaving wills – but that pays off in the longer term
- Median term, can’t affect number of wills, tack number of bequests per 1000 deaths, look at how much high value donations, use averages over time, demographics and house process in particular
- Improve through stewardship of current legators
- Longer term we can change things
- Look at bigger picture eg demographics, social changes, improve through marketing investment, upskilling team to have legacy conversations, and brand positioning
- Short term is about decisions you know about – timing and how much, improve through good administration
- Medium term – decisions already made, focus on stewardship
- Long term – can change things, big picture trends and marketing